Monday, November 06, 2006

Was Tommy Bowden Too Conservative?

As a Clemson fan, the loss to Maryland this past weekend is just frustrating. I've heard a lot of excuses and Sunday morning quarterbacking, and there is one coaching decision that most people keep pointing to...Should Tommy Bowden have played it safe and run up the middle after having the touchdown called back for illegal formation, or should he have risked the interception and passed into the endzone? At the risk of completely butchering probability theory, let's look at some numbers.

Bowden played it safe. He knew that he would probably not score a touchdown by running Davis between the tackles, but he also knew he was less likely to give up a turnover or lose yards. He basically settled for a field goal, having faith in his defense to stop Maryland from marching down the field. One crucial piece of information he needed in making that decision was how good he thought his defense was going to be at stopping Maryland. Lucky for us, we have pretty reliable data from the Tradesports.com market that suggests the probability of Maryland winning, after Clemson scored a field goal, was around 25%. This is essentially the same as the probability of Maryland driving down the field and scoring any points. Now since we are looking at the difference between forcing Maryland to only have to kick a field goal and forcing them to have to score a touchdown, we are interested in how many points Maryland will score on average, assuming they get some points. Now there are not a lot of data for Clemson vs. Maryland, and it doesn't make much sense to use data for Maryland against other opponents; but by looking at two extreme cases we can get a range for the expected number of points Maryland would score. Lets suppose that Maryland scores only field goals. Then the expected score for Maryland on that final drive would be 0.25(3*1.0+7*0.0)=0.75 points. Now lets suppose Maryland only scores touchdowns. We would expect 0.25(3*0.0+7*1.0)=1.75 points. So even at our extreme cases, the expected value of Maryland scores on the final drive are between 0.75-1.75 points, both of which are below the 2 point advantage that Clemson gained by kicking the field goal.

So while it would have been "better" to score a touchdown, on average, the field goal would have been enough to secure the victory. Thus, if Tommy felt that throwing for the touchdown was more likely to result in a game ending turnover than running it up the middle, it made good sense for him to just play it safe and kick the field goal. Yes it is frustrating. Yes it ended Clemson's dreams of a ACC championship. But it may not have been as bad a call as we all want to think it was.

6 comments:

Unknown said...

mbt sneakers
hermes bags
hermes belt for men
mulberry outlet online
juicy couture sale
prada outlet
canada goose sale
moncler outlet
north face jackets,north face,the north face,northface,north face outlet,north face jackets clearance,the north face
north face jackets
north face jackets
the north face
the north face jackets
north face outlet online
michael kors uk
michael kors outlet online,michael kors,kors outlet,michael kors outlet,michael kors handbags,michael kors outlet online sale,michael kors handbags clearance,michael kors purses,michaelkors.com,michael kors bags,michael kors shoes,michaelkors,cheap michael kors
michael kors uk outlet
soccer jerseys,cheap soccer jerseys,cheap soccer jerseys for sale,soccer jersey,usa soccer jersey,football jerseys
football shirts uk,soccer jerseys uk,cheap soccer jerseys uk
futbol baratas
nike air huarache,nike huarache,nike huarache sneakers,nike huarache shoes
qqq1026

Fangyaya said...

uggs outlet
louis vuitton purses
ray ban sunglasses
true religion jeans
coach outlet
rolex watches
ugg outlet
uggs outlet
gucci outlet online
christian louboutin sale
nike trainers uk
coach outlet
north face outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
ugg boots
ralph lauren polo shirts
louis vuitton handbags
louis vuitton discount
ray ban outlet
fitflop shoes
louboutin pas cher
uggs clearance
ugg boots
tommy hilfiger clothing
louis vuitton outlet
ray ban sunglasses outlet
cheap jordan shoes
pandora jewelry outlet
cheap rolex watches
chenyingying20160909

Unknown said...

mt0929
christian louboutin
ralph lauren outlet online
hermes birkin
discount oakley sunglasses
michael kors outlet
cheap ray ban sunglasses
doudoune moncler
red bottoms
north face outlet online
michael kors factory outlet

Unknown said...

www0906

coach outlet
christian louboutin
manolo blahnik
adidas shoes
nike outlet factory
canada goose outlet
ralph lauren
kate spade outlet
ferragamo belt
louboutin shoes

Anonymous said...

Secondly, Michigan State finally improved in an area Coach Handbags Clearance that's not as glamorous, but no Ray Ban Outlet less critical: made free throws. This is personal for coach Tom Izzo. In 1972, playing for his Iron Mountain High School on Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Izzo missed a free throw that cost his team a trip to the Michigan state New Jordan Shoes 2020 championship.

AbstractThe aim of this study is to assess differences and commonalities in the student travel market across different countries and to determine typologies based on touristic attractions/activities. The study generates groups based on travel motivations largely drawn from the Leisure Motivation Scale Ray Ban Glasses Yeezy Discount and other relevant tourism literature. Brazil, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Portugal, Coach Outlet Store Spain, Thailand, and the USA.

There will be a mandatory meeting Monday, Aug. At Bangor Municipal Golf Course. Any questions call Rob Jarvis at 941 0232.. And Ross, Yeezy Boost 350 N. And Armadillo, E. And Gasson, E. Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 15 17 July 2009 . 'Conscientiousness Index' (CI) has previously been used within UDQC, to provide an assessment of pre clinical medical students' professionalism. The Conscientiousness Index is Coach Outlet an objective, scalar measure of student professionalism.

jaqueleliywn said...

Every kid needs toys to play with. If you are in the market for toys, why not find the best toys to enhance your child's playtime and expand their imagination There are tons of toy stores that offer brands like Melissa and Doug, Step 2, Fisher Price, Mattel, and more. Snag a magnetic table for your toddler and watch as their eyes light up at the wonder of magnet.

Not as easy Cheap Michael Kors Handbags as you would think it would be, trying to MK Outlet Online adjust from the slow to the fast, Nike Air Force 1 Cheap Outlet Barr said. Of Hadwin generation who benefitted from improved conditions in Coach Outlet Online the province probably couldn claim the same excuse. So Zokol, for one, developed his own theory about why Best Yeezys so many Canadians had a similar reputation Jordan Shoes For Sale for short grass ineptitude.

You're instructed to drink something like 64 ounces of liquid a day, and you've got an extra 10 or so pounds of baby and uterus sitting on your bladder. It seems pretty obvious.How to deal:Give yourself permission to Ray Ban Outlet pee a lot. The more you hold in, the more there is to leak. Coach Outlet Clearance Sale.